The Brotherhood’s decision to pick October 6, when Egyptians celebrate their military, to hold demonstrations that condemn and denounce the army and lead to high casualties raises questions about the wisdom and efficacy of the Brotherhood’s strategy, if there is one.
Some Brotherhood members are wagering that continued clashes, demonstrations, civil disobedience and sabotage will disrupt the economy and push the country toward bankruptcy, which will result in the complete collapse of the state. The Brotherhood is also betting that the continued skirmishes and rising casualties will erode the legitimacy of the current regime and spark a rift within the June 30 alliance, providing them the chance to attract allies from the ranks of the revolutionaries. Furthermore, they are hoping that the mounting casualties will bring added international pressure and break the Egyptian people’s resolve under the weight of mounting bodies.
Without dismissing the negative impact of the Brotherhood’s strategy, its hopes seem futile even if they succeed in straining the resources of the state. Popular rejection and negative sentiments against the Brotherhood are only increasing with each episode of stalled traffic as a result of their demonstrations, with the growing number of those injured during confrontations with the Brothers and their supporters and with the continuing economic misery and hardships of daily life suffered by average Egyptians, who blame these problems on the Brotherhood and now the war of attrition they are waging against the people. As a result, it will be impossible for the Brotherhood to return to power for years, the number of which grows exponentially each time the Brothers push to implement their failed tactics.
At the same time, reconciliation with splinter factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, though important, will be met with rejection by the Brotherhood, which systematically accuses dissidents of never having been part of the organization in the first place. Unfortunately, Egyptians may have to move forward and hope the Brotherhood comes to its senses at some later date. Efforts to assimilate other Islamist factions, as well as possibly some Brotherhood supporters and defectors from the organization, should continue without expecting reconciliation with the Brotherhood itself any time soon.
And here I am…. observing, observing…. and waiting.
Luckily Bassem Youssef returns on Oct 26th. Then many things will be clear. Inch’Allah.